Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 Preview (UFC 325, Jan 31, 2026): Advanced Stats, Gameplans & Prediction
🥊 UFC 325 • Featherweight Title • Sydney • Jan 31, 2026
👑 Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 Preview (UFC 325)
The featherweight title is on the line again as Alexander Volkanovski defends against Diego Lopes in a rematch at UFC 325. This is a classic clash: championship pace and efficiency vs dangerous finishing threat.
📅 Date: Saturday, Jan 31, 2026 • 📍 Venue: Qudos Bank Arena (Sydney)
⚡ 20-Second Fight Summary
- 🧠 Volkanovski’s edge: volume, accuracy, defense, round management.
- 🧨 Lopes’ edge: finishing danger, chaos moments, submission spike.
- 🎯 Swing factor: can Lopes force “messy minutes” without getting out-scored over time?
📏 Tale of the Tape (Quick Read)
| Category | 🇦🇺 Volkanovski | 🇧🇷 Lopes | What It Suggests |
|---|---|---|---|
| Style | Pressure boxing + layered wrestling | Submission-first threat + opportunistic striking | 📌 Control vs chaos |
| Physical | Compact, strong base | Longer frame | 📌 Range vs level-change entries |
| Pace | High, consistent output | Spikes in danger moments | 📌 Minutes 8–20 are critical |
📊 Advanced Analytics (The Numbers That Matter)
| Metric | 🇦🇺 Volkanovski | 🇧🇷 Lopes | Edge & Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLpM (Sig. Strikes Landed/min) | 6.18 | ~4.1 | ✅ Volk volume can “bank rounds” |
| Striking Accuracy | 56% | ~48% | ✅ Cleaner shot selection favors Volk |
| SApM (Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min) | 3.36 | ~4.7 | ✅ Defense + positioning favors Volk |
| Sig. Strike Defense | 59% | ~47% | ✅ If Lopes can’t land clean, he falls behind fast |
| Takedown Avg (per 15 min) | 1.67 | ~0.79 | ✅ Volk can mix grappling to break rhythm |
| Takedown Accuracy | 34% | ~55% | ⚠️ Lopes can finish when he commits |
| Takedown Defense | 70% | — | ✅ Harder to hold Volk down long |
| Submission Avg (per 15 min) | 0.16 | ~1.7 | 🔥 Lopes’ biggest “instant win” path |
| Average Fight Time | 16:21 | — | ✅ Volk is built for long title-fight math |
🧠 Read the table like this: Volkanovski wins by being “hard to hit clean” and scoring continuously. Lopes wins by creating a short window where the fight becomes dangerous—especially in scrambles.
🧩 Win Conditions (Simple, Sharp, Real)
🇦🇺 Volkanovski Win Plan
- 📌 Keep the fight in “clean minutes”: jab, feints, exit angles.
- 🧱 Clinch when Lopes loads up: steal time, score, reset.
- 🤼 Mix takedown looks—not to dominate, but to disrupt.
- ⏱️ Round management: stay safe during Lopes’ best bursts, then out-score.
🇧🇷 Diego Lopes Win Plan
- 🧨 Force chaos: pressure into exchanges, make defense imperfect.
- 🎣 Attack transitions: guillotines, back takes, scramble submissions.
- 🦵 Win a leg-kick battle early to slow Volk’s movement.
- 📈 “Steal rounds” with one big moment (knockdown or near-finish).
🔍 The 3 Micro-Keys That Decide Title Fights
- 🧠 Damage vs Volume: big moments can beat clean rounds—if they’re consistent.
- 🤝 Clinch Control: who wins the 30-second tie-ups usually wins momentum.
- 🪤 Scramble Safety: one bad exit can turn into a submission threat instantly.
🧮 Prediction (Data-Driven, Not Hype)
Most likely script: Volkanovski builds a lead with pace and accuracy, mixing clinch and level changes to keep Lopes from setting traps. Lopes remains dangerous throughout, but needs multiple high-impact moments to overcome the round-by-round scoring gap.
🏆 Lean: Volkanovski by decision (late rounds competitive, earlier rounds banked by volume).
⚠️ Upset path: Lopes by submission or a swing momentum knockdown + control sequence.
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